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Efforts to tackle climate change have long focused on reducing operational emissions during the use phase of goods and services – from driving more efficient cars to improving the energy performance of buildings. While these effort shave delivered important gains, they largely overlook so-called embodied emissions that are already “locked in” long before the product is ever used, embedded in infrastructure, buildings, vehicles, and other goods.
This imbalance becomes increasingly important as systems move closer to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – the point at which operational emissions are largely eliminated and embodied emissions begin to dominate. Addressing these emissions requires more than incremental efficiency improvements and calls for a broader reconsideration of how goods and services are provided.
Alternative provisioning systems: a missing piece in the transition to net zero
Improving the use of existing infrastructures and goods, and rethinking how demand is met, can significantly reduce both embodied and operational emissions. In this context, reconfiguring provisioning systems offers an important entry point for integrating energy, climate, and industrial policies, helping to catalyze progress towards climate and development goals.
Evidence from sectoral case studies – covering mobility, buildings, and household appliances – shows how alternative provisioning systems of goods and services can reduce energy and material demand, lower lifecycle emissions, and support decent living standards and wellbeing. At the same time, these approaches open up new green growth opportunities for industry through innovative business models and activities.
Mobility
Global mobility infrastructure comprising roads, tunnels, bridges, railways, and subways is expected to grow substantially in the coming decades, especially in the Global South. Already existing mobility infrastructure amounts to roughly one third of global societal material stocks and its further expansion may require a substantial share of the remaining global carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. We analyzed seven demand- and four supply-side material and emission-focused strategies to mitigate resource use and embodied CO2 emissions required for mobility infrastructure.
Our analysis demonstrates that without demand-reducing measures, infrastructure stocks could grow by a factor of two to three by 2060, with cumulative embodied emissions reaching between 10 and 20 GtCO2. Mobility reductions, focusing on the Global North, combined with improved recycling and decarbonization of energy and industry could reduce embodied emissions by almost two thirds, while providing sufficient mobility infrastructure globally. This would help to offset increases in emissions from public transport infrastructure expansion required to reduce operational emissions.
Buildings
The built environment accounts for about 50% of all extracted material in the European Union (EU). In buildings, more than a quarter of the sector’s carbon emissions are embodied. Reducing material demand, alongside operational energy demand, is critical to mitigate sectoral GHG emissions and contribute to reaching net-zero emission targets. Material efficiency strategies have significant potential to reduce the GHG emissions of buildings. Current studies, however, mostly focus on the reduction of operational energy and often overlook embodied emissions and the potential of circularity strategies at regional and global scales. Accounting for demand-side material efficiency strategies and their implications on material and energy demands is key to exploring more comprehensive pathways for the decarbonization of the buildings sector.
We explored the potential to reduce the GHG emissions of the European residential sector by implementing a set of material efficiency strategies in combination with broader climate mitigation policies. Our results show that three key demand-side strategies for buildings, namely floorspace reduction, switch to wood-based construction, and lifetime extension, can reduce material demand by up to 65% compared to a business-as-usual scenario by 2050. These strategies can therefore contribute to major reductions in embodied GHG emissions from building construction and increase the feasibility of decarbonization pathways.
Household applications
Electrical appliances are essential to modern life, but they are also responsible for significant energy and material use, emissions, and electronic waste, accelerated by electrification and digitalization trends. Current assessments often lack lifecycle coverage and sufficient granularity to fully capture environmental impacts or evaluate mitigation options. A case study of washing machines in Europe showed continued growth in stock, energy demand, material use, and emissions to 2050. A combination of strategies that improve utilization of appliances such as sharing (e.g., shared washing machines) or improved design for repairability and maintenance and recycling, can cut embodied emissions by about 70% and total lifecycle emissions by about 30%. Combining these strategies with better efficiency and cleaner electricity can reduce emissions by about 90%, leaving materials and construction as the primary remaining sources. In regions already low in carbon emissions, such as Northern Europe, most emissions now come from materials and construction, making reuse and recycling especially important for further reducing emissions.
The role of digitalization
Switching to new practices and business models such as car or ride sharing and working remotely, frequently relies on digital technology to be efficiently implemented. Digitalization is increasingly shaping the way energy systems, industries, and societies function – but its impact on energy transitions and climate targets is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, digital technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) can improve the energy efficiency of processes and systems. On the other hand, they can also increase energy demand, particularly through energy-intensive applications and digital infrastructure such as data centers.
Insights from a new study, across sectors such as mobility, buildings and household appliances, highlight how digital technologies can both enable and undermine sustainability goals, depending on how they are governed and aligned with broader energy and policy frameworks. Ensuring that digitalization contributes to reduced resource use and emissions – rather than increasing demand – will therefore be critical and will require regulation and creating appropriate incentives.